Global Models and Scenarios

In the area „Methodological Cohesion“, data are collected that comprise the whole range of information from natural conditions to economic and institutional facts. In order to harmonise information on meta data, a consistent scheme for meta data is developed. Furthermore, a Geodata Infrastructure (GDI) is set up and serves as a platform for exchanging meta data as well as modelling results. Once these data sets are provided to the GDI, they can be used by regional projects as external and harmonised information and employed in their modelling work.

Another objective is to provide the regional projects with a common set of medium-term scenarios which include global parameters and related data describing potential future development paths. These global parameters comprise trends in decadal changes of climate conditions and population growth, projections of agricultural markets and water availability and water use efficiency in the agricultural sector. Impacts on land use are generated by linking information on e.g. effects of climate change on yield potentials or bioenergy policies on the supply side with information such as population growth, GDP and taste shifts on the demand side. Hence, scenarios are defined by combining natural and socio-economic drivers, which serves as a foundation of an integrated modelling framework for the regional projects.

The field “Long-Term Scenarios and Global Drivers” will provide a set of current and future global land use patterns, computed under various climate change scenarios and specified long-term sustainability criteria.

In addition, quantitative scenarios of global and regional drivers that co-determine regional trajectories of land use change will be made available to the regional consortia.

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