SP 5 - Modelling of biodiversity and plant- mediated ecosystem servies (ESS) in response to land use management and environmental change

SP 5 will yield the ecological evaluation of the COMTESS scenarios by statistically modelling the func-tional and response diversity (SP 5.1) and developing a process- based model for the spatio- temporal dynamics of key species and plant- mediated ESS (SP 5.2). For this purpose, SP 5 will upscale the plot-level one (or two)-year measurements of SP 1-4 to the landscape scale and to time scales ranging from 2010 to 2100. The statistical niche modelling of SP 5.1 will be enhanced with the transient plant community dynamics captured by the individual- based model of SP 5.2. Finally, the insurance effect of functionally redundant species on the resilience of ESF and, thus, the provision of ESS will be analysed for variable environmental conditions. The predicting results from SP 5 will be summarized in a GIS modelling shell used by WP 8 for the ecological- economic analysis.