SP 2 - Regional climate and precipitation scenarios

The main objective of this subproject is to analyze the dynamics of water discharge of three main tributaries of the Tarim River (Aksu, Hotan and Yarkant) under different regional climate change scenarios. The scope of the study will include: 

  • monitoring of the cryosphere (snow, glaciers, rock glaciers) using remote sensing data
  • modelling of permafrost, glacier balance and glaciers dynamics
  • development of regional climate change scenarios using statistical and dynamical climate models
  • generation of seasonal predictions of rainfall by means of different stochastic approaches
  • modelling  of  river  discharge  and  freshwater  availability in three subbasins of the Tarim (Aksu, Hotan, Yarkant) under climate and land-cover change scenarios

The main objectives of this subproject can be summarized as the modeling of impacts of climate and land-cover change on water resources in the studied basins and up-scaling of small scale investigations to the large scale.